FactIQ Divergence Pipeline

A research system that treats FactIQ as one data source among several, never a single point of failure - built around one question: is the data point-in-time aware? It is confirmed not vintage-aware (see the vintage probe), which shapes everything else in this project.

Testing whether official Asian trade/industrial statistics diverge from independent, satellite and shipping-derived reality - and where they do, whether that divergence is tradeable, or just noise. Built for early divergence signal detection between official statistics and observed physical/market reality (satellite, shipping, trade-mirror data), with strict point-in-time discipline throughout.

Domains

Domain A

China industrial activity

Official industrial output vs. a satellite composite; Yunnan dry-season hydropower curtailment signal. H1 weak, H2 not falsified.

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Domain B

EU gas & LNG re-routing

Germany anonymizes all gas-partner data; Belgium↔Netherlands mirror statistics fail to reconcile.

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Domain C

Korea/Taiwan calibration check

Semiconductor export co-movement - the pipeline reproduces a well-documented relationship (r=0.63).

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Domain D

US energy language vs. fundamentals

Capex language never net-positive while supply language always is, every quarter, both majors checked.

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Domain E

EU waste-oil transparency monitor

"Waste" oil priced at parity with virgin palm oil in Spain - not the discount genuine waste should carry.

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Findings

Gate finding

Vintage probe

FactIQ confirmed not point-in-time aware.

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Findings

Capability survey

What FactIQ actually contains, queried not assumed.

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Findings

Status summary

What can be relied on, what can't, and how to use it.

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Phase 5

Scout queue

Statistically unusual points, ranked and cited, awaiting human review.

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Findings

Drift log

Ongoing regression check for silent restatement.

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Ask about the data covers every domain on the site

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